The first tropical system to impact the US could happen next week. The NHC is watching closely

A low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico that is currently disorganized should be monitored by the end of next week, particularly along the Gulf Coast.

“Later slow development of this system is possible as it drifts from northwest to north,” said the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Right now, according to the NHC, there is only a 20 percent chance it will develop into something tropical in the next 5 days, and according to other forecasters, there is a 30 percent chance it will develop in the next 7 days.

Both the European and American computer forecasting models have these models possible storm that is developing very slowly.

The European forecast model for June 18, 2021

But it will be worth watching it along the Gulf Coast, especially until the middle of the week, as both models point to a north lane with the system.

The American forecast model for June 18, 2021.

If this forecast is correct, it could be the first storm of the 2021 season to hit the US.

“The location of this potential low pressure is exactly what we call a typical June formation area,” says CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.

Storm could enter a more favorable environment for development next week.

If this storm gets a name, it’s called Bill. We already had Ana, who formed near Bermuda on May 22nd.

The CPC predicts another above-average hurricane season

The Climate Prediction Center predicts another busy year in the Atlantic Basin. They forecast 13-20 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes – which are category 3 or higher.

In an average season, we see 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

The 2020 season was unprecedented. We have had 30 named storms, 11 of which hit land in the US. Fourteen were hurricanes and 7 became severe hurricanes.

The hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.


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